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Europe For Sale--Cheap
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I hate to be the one calling a hard baguette stale, or calling bird’s nest soup exactly what it is…
But I typically don’t like entertaining fairy tales, prevarications, and other make-believe elaborations…
Unless, or course, I’m putting my 6-year-old little boy to sleep at night.
The point is--and I know I made it just a few days ago--but it bears repeating for more than one reason…
There is no deal to rescue the euro…
Not a one.
Especially from the Europeans…
The truth is…
If the Price is Right
What was so gloriously portrayed to the world last week as a brilliant rescue plan…
Drafted by the finest financial—or theatrical-- minds in euroland...
Was definitely not a deal…or even a vaguely detailed plan.
No, it was nothing of the sort.
It was more along the lines of a gathering of game show hosts…
Telling the world—ahem, the Chinese—what they might win, if…
The price is right!
Too much?
Well then, how about the whole deal, deal was but a charade of dignitaries…
Waving the trappings of a former glory before the calm and unblinking eyes…
Of those whose country they once divided amongst themselves…
In their glorious colonial, mercantile, noblesse oblige past…
And ironically, whose vast sums of money they now so desperately need.
The Europeans are Desperate
But those eyes are unblinking because they realize several important facts about euroland...
And number one is that there is a deal to be had…
And number two, it won’t be about the euro, really…
Although, number three, it will involve the one thing euroland wants the most…
The preservation of euroland as an economic entity...
Which is what the Chinese want as well.
But it will be on much different terms than the euroland leaders will allow themselves—
Or at least their people--to really know about or understand.
Because the Chinese know desperation when they see it—
And see last week’s façade of euroland sleight of hand for just what it was—and is…
The attempt to sway with sentiment based on promises of future benefits in the form of unreconstructed agreements to agree on future plans…
Of which shall be determined at a date…in the future…ad nauseaum.
An illusion of smoke and mirrors by those in nice suits with the fading cache of great powers.
And the Chinese response?
Remain cool and uninterested…
Because even though China has expressed full confidence in the “wisdom of Europeans to get their financial house in order…
"We are convinced that Europe has the wisdom and the competence to conquer its momentary difficulties," said President Hu Jintao in Austria...
While Europe sweats out the worst crisis in living memory…
The Chinese President was smiling as he said this…most likely on the inside…
Because the China play book is to dangle the huge Chinese market to the Europeans as a way to cut the hardest deal possible…
In such a way as to preserve European historical pretensions…
While at the same time stripping euroland of all that those of pretense seek to hold onto…
While half delivers on their agreements.
How can China be so cool?
The Real Deal
Because there is no rescue plan for the euro.
They know this…
The Europeans may not know it…or at least admit publicly…
The plan is for China to rescue euroland, Europe really…
But the currency is just the way in…
China’s play is an asset play.
That is, China aim to obtain Europe’s assets…
And thereby control their largest trading partner…
And begin doing what they have done to the US, to Europe…
Only must faster and on an even larger scale.
China plans to be in Europe forever…
By owning large chunks of European businesses, real estate…
And along the way, the EU Parliament.
The euro just happens to be a wonderfully well-timed crisis for the Chinese…
Who need market security to replace the US market—yes; they see the writing on the walls of Congress…
While they remain confident of the Europeans’ wisdom to solve their financial difficulties…
Even though there was no comprehensive approach to restore fiscal sanity in the deal…
Nor was there any plan to coordinate austerity programs with any political stability.
And even the 50% discount for Greek bond holders did not go far enough…
And still leaves Greece with debt levels at 120% of projected GDP…in 2020.
Did you catch the news reports of Greeks dancing in the streets after the deal announcements?
No, you didn’t, and neither did I.
And why not?
Because the Greek economy is in free fall—contacting 6% in the first half of 2011…
20% more than anticipated.
And much of euroland is stagnating and pulling back…
As Spain, Italy, and even France seem unstable.
So, if the euro rescue deal doesn’t live up to its advertising…
It’s because its advertising is inaccurate.
Because when you get right down to it…
The euro-deal was more of an elaborately staged invitation to participate in a well-stocked estate stale…
To no one else but the Chinese.
And whether the Europeans care to admit it or not…
Once China gets that in the door of Europe, they will be in for good–or ill—for the foreseeable future.
And that’s a high price for preserving the euro…
Come to think of it…
The euro is being put to sleep…
So maybe make believe and fairy tales are just what are called for.
And those are…The Gorrie Details.
About James R. Gorrie
James R. Gorrie spent over eighteen years in financial services as an industry recognized investment financial advisor, advising clients on investment planning, trusts, business succession … Read Full Bio »Free Presentations
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