Canaries of the Apocalypse

By on September 28, 2011
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If you’re like most people, you have your retirement in the stock market…

You own—or used to own—a home…

And are working hard at your job…

While raising a family, paying the bills, paying your taxes, trying to save some money, and obeying the law…

And all the while, you are hoping that the powers that be will be able to get the economy back on track…

And that this happens sooner than later…

The truth is, we all are hoping that this comes about…

Even if we don’t believe that we’re going about it the right way…

Now, we know—or at least, some of us think we know—that the current financial situation cannot last forever.

The crushing weight of debt

We know that economies cannot carry enormous debt for too long…

Without suffering the predictable consequences of insolvency and, ultimately, collapse…

But we also know that whatever the US is trying, it does not appear that things are yet turning around…

And although 300 point swings in the stock market are now the new normal (how strange does that sound?)…

And bank values are plummeting again…

As is the housing market...

We never quite get a full explanation from the banks, from Congress, or the President…

Of just how adding trillions of dollars of new debt will get the country…out of debt…

That is, just how will going deeper down the debt hole make our country solvent again?

And restore an economy that is saddled with…too much debt?

And of course, we see Congress dance with debt ceilings and more recently, narrowly avoiding a budget impasse and government shutdown…

And, the market volatility continues, one way or the other…

And the average American investor?

Well, he and she are really just along for the ride…

BBC: Euroland on the brink?

And over in euroland?

Well, the song’s the same…

Only more so…

Whatever they are doing—which is not much—it’s not working…

And whatever they are planning on doing, they had better do it fast, because in 2 weeks, Greece is out of money…

And at the moment, there is no plan that looks like it will work…

And the outcome will get nasty…

As the traditional Spanish saying goes…

“The difference between peace and anarchy is 9 meals.”

It looks like it may well become a Greek saying, as well…

Maybe even an American one…

Because whatever political and economic stripes you happen to wear…

You have to agree that the current quantitative-stimulus-green jobs- schemes handed down by the powers that be…

Are most definitely not working…here or anywhere else.

Things are getting worse, not better…

Which brings us to an interesting interview by the BBC…

With a chap named Alessio Rastani…

A self-described “individual trader” living in South London…

In his BBC interview on Monday, Mr. Rastani said many things…

But the key points he made regarding the global economy were that…

The big hedge funds and institutional money “are not buying the euro rescue plan,”…

And therefore, are moving their money into “the safety of US Treasuries,”…

Why?

Because he went on the say that…

“The market is toast,”…

That “We will see a “global economic collapse within 12 months,”…

And that…“Governments don’t rule the world…Goldman Sachs does.”

Mr. Rastani has gotten a lot of attention from his statements…

He has been written up in Forbes.com…

Who asks if he is a “Trader or a Prankster?”

And in The Huffington Post, and other media outlets as well…

Why is this important?

It’s important because…

Even though Mr. Rastani is now being marginalized as an attention-seeking rogue…

Which he just might be…

It doesn’t mean that what he is saying…

Isn’t true.

Why would I say that?

Because what he says sounds reasonable?

Could be…

But also because Alessio Rastani, whatever he may or may not be, is not the only one saying it…

Credible warnings

Nor is he the most credible person saying it…

There are more credible people saying the same thing—and worse.

Like whom?

Well…

Like the head of UniCredit global securities Attila Szalay-Berzeviczy.

Mr. Szalay-Berzeviczy is definitely not an attention-seeking prankster…

But he certainly is…

Someone much more credible, as the former Chairman of the Hungarian Stock Exchange…

And, it just so happens that he has written a scathing account of what is happening with the euro…

And his words are much more apocalyptic than Mr. Rastani’s…

So, just what did the head of UniCredit have to say in the Hungarian portal Index.hu?

Hold onto your seats…

He explicitly stated that “the euro is practically dead and Europe faces a financial earthquake from a Greek default,”…

And that…

“The only remaining question is how many days the hopeless rearguard action of European governments and the European Central Bank can keep up Greece’s spirits."

But wait, there’s more…

What does he say will be the effect of the Greek default?

Mr. Szalay-Berzeviczy is very specific in his predictions…

It will “trigger an immediate “magnitude 10” earthquake across Europe…(Greece) will stop paying salaries and pensions and automated teller machines will empty out in minutes.”

And his conclusion on the troubled European currency?

“The euro is beyond rescue.”

And these events, he asserts, are days away…

Not 12 months, as Mr. Rastani told the BBC.

So, what should we make of all this?

Is Alessio Rastani an attention-seeking rogue?

A fake?

A fraud and an alarmist?

The answer is…it doesn’t matter…

Because Mr. Szalay-Berzeviczy.…

Is definitely none of those things.

And those are…The Gorrie Details.

 

About James R. Gorrie

James R. Gorrie spent over eighteen years in financial services as an industry recognized investment financial advisor, advising clients on investment planning, trusts, business succession … Read Full Bio »

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